It has been a hectic week. The goodwill surrounding the Artemis II moon expedition launch was quickly diminished, with focus returning to the US-Israel war in Iran, after Donald Trump threatened if a deal was not reached, “an entire civilisation would die”.
Such a casual allusion to genocide by a sitting US Commander-in-Chief is deeply disturbing and yet another sign that our future on these islands rests with our allies across the Channel - and not in Washington.
Despite a ceasefire being agreed, Israel has continued to rain terror on the people of Lebanon. Amid important discussions about fuel prices and the cost of living here in the UK, it is vital we keep the innocent civilians worst affected by this - unnecessary - conflict foremost in our minds.
Elsewhere, we look ahead to the crunch Hungarian election on Sunday, report on the latest bout of Russian espionage, and catch up on the Artemis II ‘splashdown’.
Read on and enjoy!
Ayatolled ya so
What began in Iran over a month ago with seemingly no plan and no objective has, to the surprise of absolutely no one, ended (for now) as a devastating strategic defeat for the US. The last-minute intervention by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif led to Iran and the US agreeing to a two-week conditional ceasefire, under which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened.
Iran’s proposed ten-point plan for peace includes the complete cessation of conflict in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, the lifting of sanctions on the country, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
Trump has been lambasted by former MAGA allies from the very outset of the war, including conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, former Fox host Tucker Carlson, and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. The anger amongst many isolationist Republicans represents the largest split in the coalition that has twice elected Trump President. If this ceasefire does mark the end of the conflict, then the US leaves it in a much weaker position than at the beginning of the war.
America’s allies have turned away and condemned the initiation and continuation of the war. On Friday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer placed Trump alongside Putin when criticising the President for the way his reckless actions have driven up prices for Brits.
“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy, businesses’ bills go up and down on energy, because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world, and saying to families across the country, saying to businesses across the country, ‘we’ve just got to … put up with being on the international market.”
Trump’s actions also cast doubt over the US-Gulf relationship. With China keen to expand its influence in the region, America may no longer be seen as the foremost ally there. For Iran, the war has devastated its infrastructure, killed its former leader, and claimed the lives of thousands of civilians. Yet, in surviving the onslaught from America and Israel and asserting dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian regime will claim this as a victory for the new Ayatollah…
Brought to Heal-ey
Defence Secretary John Healey held an explosive press conference on Thursday, accusing Russia of operating a covert submarine operation targeting Britain’s cables and pipelines. Healey revealed that Britain and Norway had been tracking what are known as GUGI submarines. These vessels are tasked with “deep sea research”, but their work is so secretive that they report only to Putin and Defence Minister Andrey Belousov.
GUGI specialises in underwater sabotage, and Healey stressed that their presence was a reminder of the constant threat the Kremlin continues to pose to the UK. The Defence Secretary lambasted the 14 years of Tory mismanagement of the armed forces and the navy, admitting that the UK was some way from where it needed to be in this new and more dangerous world.
Orbán out?
On Sunday, millions of Hungarians head to the polls in one of the most consequential elections in the country’s democratic history. Viktor Orbán received a planned visit from Vice President JD Vance earlier this week, as both the US and Russia pile their support behind the far-right leader of Hungary. Orbán has overseen a period of democratic backsliding in Hungary and is held up as a model by populists across the world.
The government controls roughly 80% of the country’s media and has spent much time and money distributing food packages to prospective voters. However, independent pollsters have given opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party a 9% lead over Orbán’s Fidesz party. A defeat for Orbán would not just offer Hungary a chance at greater liberty, free up financing for Ukraine and reintegrate the country into the European project: it would send a signal to the global far-right that democracy can still operate under pressure. If Orbán wins, Hungary may have taken another step towards authoritarianism. We’ll be watching this one even more closely than usual.
Elsewhere on our Substack we have an explainer post digging deeper into what to expect this weekend - and come back next week to unpack the results.
Gone West
The drama over the decision by Wireless Festival to choose Kanye West to headline their festival was - thankfully - over as quickly as it began. In a rare act of decisiveness, the PM chose to bar the rapper from entering the UK due to the vile array of antisemitic statements and actions he has previously made.
After it was announced West would not be allowed into the country, festival organisers confirmed the whole event would be cancelled and tickets refunded. Over the weekend, Keir Starmer said that it was “deeply concerning” that West had been booked by Wireless given his “celebration of Nazism”.
RFK Jr risks us all
On Substack this week a fantastic piece from Kenny Campbell marking World Health Day and the need for us all to do more than simply ‘stand with science’.
In the face of vaccine sceptics and misinformation advocates elected to the highest of offices, as Kenny puts it:
“Because once science starts behaving like politics, it becomes louder, faster, more tribal, when good science has always been about caution, consistency and trust.”
Over twice as many haulage companies have folded since Brexit as in the five years prior. Since Brexit in 2021, haulage companies have faced greater costs and bureaucracy in moving goods across the UK-EU border. With trade intensity with the EU down by roughly 15%, there is also simply less demand for their services.
The collapse of the haulage industry raises concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war being further compounded. Senior figures in the industry are also worried by the upcoming introduction of the EU’s Entry/Exit System, with 80% of operators expecting their business to decrease further, according to the Road Haulage Association.
Cheerful News of the Week
Artemis II has safely splashed down back on Earth overnight. The four-person crew has successfully ventured further into the starry night than any who came before them.
At a time of such geopolitical tension, isolationism, and division, we hope that the collaborative nature of this mission and the experience of seeing the world in its borderless totality from the rear-view mirror can inspire something positive in humankind.
If you missed it, one moving moment came as the crew announced their decision to name a crater on the moon ‘Carroll’ after Commander Reid Wiseman’s late wife, and mother of their two daughters.
“It’s a bright spot on the moon, and we would like to call it Carroll,” mission specialist Jeremy Hansen said. Watch it and weep.
Just incredibly painful viewing…
Next week, MPs put down their Easter eggs and pick up their white and green papers as they rush (or hobble) back from recess and restart another week of Parliamentary action. Next Saturday also marks the 75th Anniversary of the Treaty of Paris, which established the European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to the EU.
The Bulgarian election follows hot on the heels of the Hungarian election next Sunday, and in the Commons we can enjoy Department for Culture, Media and Sport questions, discussions in the Lords on the impact of AI on jobs, and a Foreign Affairs Committee session on “Disinformation Diplomacy”.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Joshua Edwicker
Senior Content Officer
Best for Britain